A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
